The 2026 Brazilian harvest has extremely positive projections of a historical record, surpassing even the volume achieved in 2020. Together, the Arabica and Canephora (Robusta/Conilon) crops could form the largest cycle ever recorded in global coffee farming.
This scenario of abundance is the result of a perfect combination of structural and agronomic factors. On one hand, there is a significant increase in cultivation areas: according to Conab’s 1st Survey for the 2026 crop, the space dedicated to coffee plantations reached around 2.3 million hectares (3.5% above the previous cycle). This advance is coupled with continuous investments in technology and precision management. On the other hand, the crop reflects a positive biennial cycle in most plantations.
Crowning this union of factors, the climate played a crucial role. Although 2025 imposed severe adversities, with heatwaves and droughts punishing the fields, the 2026 season changed the game right at the beginning of the reproductive stage. Excellent rainfall and thermal conditions mitigated the water stress of the plants, ensuring optimal bean development (fruit filling) and significantly boosting the national average productivity.
Regions such as Matas de Minas, Alta Mogiana, and Espírito Santo have already begun to timidly harvest their first cherries. The pace of the operation, however, will gain momentum as the rains subside, fostering better maturation and drying of the beans.
Overall, the outlook uniting all regions is one of profound optimism. Well-leafed trees, well-developed cherries, and cooperative weather form the ideal scenario for the 2026 harvest, with the picking gaining more strength and volume by the end of May.
