During the month of January, I visited several coffee plantations. Although my sample of farms visited in 2025 is still limited to provide an accurate estimate of production for this harvest, I would like to share some scenarios observed in the South of Minas, Alta Mogiana and Cerrado Mineiro:
– Many older plantations, which had a high production in 2024, are expected to face a significant drop in production in 2025 due to coffee’s biennial cycle. This natural cycle, characterized by alternating years of high and low production, leads to expectations of a reduced harvest this year. In some cases, producers are already planning to harvest only half of last year’s volume in 2025.
– New crops are performing well, with expectations of a repeat of the positive results seen in 2024. These crops, which generally have more vigorous and productive plants, have made a significant contribution to maintaining productivity on the farms, compensating to some extent for the drop in older crops.
– However, some crops suffered the effects of high temperatures and a lack of water during certain periods. This water and heat stress resulted in negative consequences, such as the abortion of flowers and lower fruit set, which compromised production in the most affected areas. The impact of the water shortage was particularly noticeable in regions where rainfall was insufficient during the critical months of the production cycle.
– In contrast, crops that have adopted regenerative agriculture systems have shown considerable resistance to the effects of high temperatures and lack of water. This is largely due to the soil protection provided by cover crops and the practice of soil regeneration. These practices, which involve the use of compost, organic fertilizer and proper management of the soil microbiota, ensure greater support for the plants, increasing their ability to withstand periods of climatic stress.
– In some isolated regions, other distinct scenarios were observed: farms that have irrigation systems, for example, are showing good harvest expectations, due to their ability to meet the plants’ water demand during critical periods. However, there have also been cases where, even with the presence of irrigation, water availability has been insufficient, damaging crop performance. In addition, crops that have used products such as “Keep Green” have shown promising results, with more resilient plants and a better ability to recover after climatic stresses.
These scenarios reflect the diversity of treatments, farming practices and realities that we find in different coffee-growing regions. Each farm faces its own challenges! This year’s panorama is complex and requires a detailed analysis of each specific context in order to define the best approaches for dealing with adversity.
A primeira estimativa divulgada pela CONAB para a safra de café brasileira de 2025 aponta uma produção total de 51,8 milhões de sacas de café beneficiado, o que representa uma queda de 4,4% em comparação com a produção de 2024.
Another important warning issued by CONAB was about the global coffee scenario, which points to greater restrictions on supply. According to projections, coffee stocks are at historically low levels, which, combined with growing demand on the international market, could lead to a scenario of higher prices and greater competition for the available supply.
Com esse panorama em mente, seguimos de perto os acontecimentos no campo. Ao longo do mês de fevereiro, nossa equipe continuará acompanhando diversas lavouras de café, trocando informações com produtores e realizando visitas técnicas para melhor entender as condições e as expectativas para a safra deste ano. Como sempre, estamos otimistas e torcendo pelo melhor que a safra de 2025 pode nos oferecer, confiantes de que, com o empenho dos produtores e as condições adequadas, ainda é possível alcançar bons resultados.
Este ano, a dinâmica do mercado global de café e os desafios climáticos exigem uma atenção redobrada e um trabalho conjunto entre os diferentes agentes do setor, desde os produtores até os especialistas, para garantir a qualidade e a sustentabilidade da produção.
About the author: Bruna Souza is an Agricultural Engineer, Sustainability Analyst and part of the Sustainability team at Bourbon Specialty Coffees.
